Today I ran into an issue while kicking off a new client. They wanted to know what to expect for performance like, CPC, CTR and the number of leads they could expect for xx budget. Now, their budget is large enough to capture a significant impression share. But that doesn’t really matter in this case. The numbers Google’s Keyword Planner were giving me were wildly off from reality. I redid the estimates 100 times with different results each time. The frustration was real.
This led me to write a blog. So, here we are.
How reliable is Google Keyword Planner? In my experience, not very. Today, specifically, I narrowed down a large keyword list to 78 keywords. From this, only half were showing any CPC estimates. This was immediate cause for concern as we all know, clicks aren’t free.
The second red flag was the budget was capping at $400/day. For this campaign, we’re spending $1000. With some of the clicks averaging $49, this made no sense. I was able to manually figure out some estimates to share with the client but wanted to walk through the good and the bad with Google Keyword Planner and things to watch out for.
What is Google Ads Keyword Planner Good For?
Estimated clicks
Impressions
Conversions
Cost per click (CPC)
Return on Ad Spend (ROAS)
While these predictions can provide a ballpark figure of what to expect, they are rarely accurate.
The Limits of Google Ads Keyword Planner
1. Based on Historical Data
Google Ads forecasting relies heavily on historical data to project future performance. This may seem like an effective method, but it overlooks the dynamic nature of paid search campaigns. Market trends, audience behavior, and competition levels are constantly changing. What worked last month may not work today. As a result, forecasts often fail to account for these fluid variables, leading to misleading expectations.
2. Changes in Market Conditions
No matter how sophisticated the algorithm, forecasting tools cannot predict changes in market conditions. Competitor bidding strategies, seasonal trends, or unforeseen events (such as economic shifts or a viral trend) can drastically change your campaign’s performance. Google Ads cannot account for future changes that don’t exist in the historical data, which means the forecast might significantly deviate from reality.
3. Static Assumptions About Budget and Bidding
Google Ads forecasts assume that your budget and bids will remain constant throughout the campaign period. In reality, many advertisers adjust their budgets, bids, and targeting based on early results or external factors. Any shifts in your strategy that occur during the campaign can render the original forecasts irrelevant.
4. Inaccurate Conversion Predictions
Conversions are among the most important KPIs for most advertisers, and yet forecasting them is always highly inaccurate. Conversion rates can vary due to factors like landing page quality, ad copy, and audience segmentation. Google Ads forecasts can give you a basic understanding of potential conversions, but they don’t take into account how tweaks in these areas can impact actual results.
5. Limited Audience Insights
Google Ads forecasting provides predictions based on generic audience trends, but it doesn’t offer nuanced insights into your specific audience segments. If your business is targeting a niche or highly specialized audience, the predictions will be less reliable because Google’s forecasting relies on broader data pools that may not be fully representative of your target market.
6. It Doesn’t Reflect Real-Time Data
While Google Ads forecasting is based on historical performance, campaign success should be judged by real-time data and adjustments made accordingly. Digital advertising is dynamic. Factors like user behavior and market competition are constantly shifting. Relying solely on a forecast can cause you to miss out on the value of active campaign optimization.
7. Ignores Creativity and Strategy
Forecasting tools are purely data-driven, offering no insight into the effectiveness of your creative assets. Great ad copy, compelling offers, and eye-catching visuals can outperform what data might suggest. The human element of creative strategy is a huge component of campaign success and can’t be quantified by an algorithm.
8. Fails to Capture Long-Term Growth
Google Ads forecasting is designed for short-term projections. It doesn’t capture the full picture of long-term growth, such as brand awareness or customer lifetime value (CLV). If your strategy is focused on building a customer base over time, forecasting metrics like CPC or immediate conversions may not reflect the real ROI your campaign delivers in the long run.
9. Campaigns Require Ongoing Testing and Optimization
How to Use Google Ads Keyword Planner For Effective Forecasting
While Google Ads forecasting isn’t the ultimate tool for determining campaign success, it still has its place. Here are some ways to use it effectively:
Set realistic expectations: Use forecasting to set initial, broad expectations for your campaign’s performance. Treat these predictions as a baseline, not a guarantee.
Benchmarking: The forecasting tool can be useful for comparing multiple campaign setups, offering a starting point to identify which configurations may perform better in theory.
Adjustments: After gathering real-time data from a live campaign, revisit your original forecasts to understand where and why deviations occurred.
Other WaysTo Compile Performance Estimates For Clients
Leverage Google Analytics to review historical data and gather estimates based on real data
Provide estimates based on industry benchmarks.
Auction insights from previous campaigns
Analyze existing campaigns
And my favorite!
Manually calculate estimates. Just my opinion, this is more reliable than any other method because you can pull data from multiple sources to compile a more realistic forecast. This includes current CPC’s and keyword volume.
Remember to use caution when using this tool. While it does have some great benefits, I think you’ll find there are more accurate ways to forecast performance and give your clients a really solid, realistic plan. Remember to always let them know that these are estimates. The landscape does change daily.
Partner with true industry veterans at The Move. We specialize in Google Ads, SEO, HubSpot Services, CRO and Analytics. Driving growth through tailored custom strategies for Paid Media, SEO and HubSpot. Maximize your ROI, boost organic search rankings, streamline marketing processes, and make data-driven decisions with our innovative strategies and access to the industries best tools.